2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Quarterbacks

NCAA Football Betting Lines

06/23/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They probably get too much credit when things are going good, and too much blame when things aren't. But that's the nature of the quarterback position at every level, and the FBS is certainly no exception.

With that said, here are the top signal-callers heading into the 2010 college football season.

JAKE LOCKER, WASHINGTON

There was a real chance that Locker would have been an early pick in this year's NFL Draft, as the St. Louis Rams, among others, were reported to be extremely high on him. Locker has everything needed to be a cornerstone of a NFL organization for a decade or so, including prototypical size (6-3, 225) and experience in a pro-style offense at WU. He has a quick release and strong arm, with the ability to make things happen with his legs as well. Locker just missed out on a 2,000-yard passing, 1,000-yard rushing campaign in 2007, then rushed for just under 400 yards in 2009, while upping his passing number to the 2,800 range. If he continues to improve as a passer (completed 47.3 percent in 2007, 53.8 percent in abbreviated 2008 campaign and 58.4 percent in 2009), his status in the eyes of scouts will only improve.

RYAN MALLETT, ARKANSAS

He won't run away from anyone, but at 6-7, 238 pounds, Mallett doesn't need to. Mallett transferred from Michigan, where he started as a freshman before exiting after Rich Rodriguez's offense made him obsolete. After sitting out 2008, Mallett earned the starting job last spring and never looked back. He completed a modest 55.8 percent of his passes, but did throw for 3,624 yards, with 30 TDs and just seven interceptions in head coach Bobby Petrino's system. A strong-armed pocket-passer that the pros covet, the junior could certainly feel the gravitational pull of the NFL by mid-season if all goes well.

TERRELLE PRYOR, OHIO STATE

Pryor has been on this list since the day he stepped on the field in Columbus, and perhaps even before. The expectations were so high that it was almost impossible for Pryor to live up to the hype, but the 6-6, 233-pound junior has continued the maturation process within the OSU offense. During the 2009 campaign, the former blue-chipper threw for just over 2,000 yards and 18 TDs, while rushing for 779 yards and seven more scores. Expect more of the same in 2010. He won't lead the nation with gaudy passing numbers, but should be a regular on highlight reels week-in and week-out, as Ohio State will once again be in the hunt for the Big Ten title and factor in the big BCS picture as the season nears a conclusion.

KELLEN MOORE, BOISE STATE

Perhaps the best quarterback in the country, with the least amount of hype. Moore has been a model of consistency since stepping onto the blue turf in Boise a couple of years ago, and has been a major factor in his program crashing the BCS party of late. He lacks ideal size (6-0, 187), but makes up for it with great football instincts, competitive nature and superb leadership skills. In two seasons, Moore has completed over 66 percent of his passes with over 7,000 passing yards, 64 TDs and a mere 13 INTs. With the heightened national profile afforded Boise State this season (the Broncos should be a preseason top-five program), expect to hear plenty from Moore in 2010.

CASE KEENUM, HOUSTON

A product of the system in Houston? Probably, though there is still no denying the impressive nature of the numbers Keenum has put up with the Cougars. The 6-2, 210-pound All-American has led the nation in total offense the last two years, throwing for over 10,000 yards in his sophomore and junior campaigns combined, with 88 TD passes over that span. Keenum threw for a jaw-dropping 5,671 yards a year ago, with a 70 percent completion rate. It's hard to imagine his numbers plummeting this year.

ROBERT GRIFFIN, BAYLOR

The face of Baylor football, there may not be a more athletic QB in this group than Griffin, and that includes Pryor. As a freshman in 2008, the 6-2, 210- pounder threw for 2,091 yards, with 15 TDs and just three INTs, while rushing for 843 yards and 13 more scores, en route to All-American honors. He lasted just two-plus games into his sophomore season before being lost for the year with a knee injury, and will have to prove that he can recover his reputation as one of the fastest QBs in college football history. A hardship waiver got Griffin's sophomore year back, and in even better news, he participated in all non-contact drills in the spring.

JACORY HARRIS, MIAMI-FLORIDA

After showing flashes of brilliance as a freshman in 2008, Harris took it to another level as a sophomore last year, his first as the full-time starter. Harris completed around 60 percent of his passes, for 3,352 yards and 24 TDs, emerging as the face of the Hurricanes offense. Harris and the Canes will try to take another step forward this season in their hoped-for return to college football elite status. For his part, you can expect another jump in terms of production from the athletic Harris, as Miami pursues an ACC title in 2010.

COLIN KAEPERNICK, NEVADA

Yet another quarterback from a non-BCS program that can do a little bit of everything. With great size (6-6, 220) and extreme athleticism, Kaepernick has been a big fish in the small pond that is the WAC. Last season, the Wolf Pack's field-general passed for over 2,000 yards with 20 TD passes, while eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing (1,183), with an additional 16 scores. There isn't a whole lot of national attention lavished on the Nevada program, but Kaepernick may change that in 2010. Expect to see plenty of good things from the signal-caller in Reno this season.

LANDRY JONES, OKLAHOMA

Thrown into the toughest of situations a year ago, when Heisman-winner Sam Bradford went down with a shoulder injury, Jones actually performed admirably as a freshman in Norman. Named the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, the 6-2, 210-pounder completed almost 60 percent of his passes, for 3,198 yards, with 26 TDs. The Sooners struggled to an 8-5 record, but it was difficult to pin those struggles on Jones, who seemed to improve with each passing week. With a strong arm and a nice feel for the game, expect inflated numbers from Jones this season, as OU becomes relevant in the big picture again.

JERROD JOHNSON, TEXAS A&M

Johnson already holds numerous single-season passing records at Texas A&M, and heads into his senior season looking to climb the career charts as well. With attention-grabbing 6-5, 243-pound size, Johnson is coming off a stellar season in which he completed almost 60 percent of his passes, for 3,579 yards and 30 TDs, while adding another 500 yards on the ground and eight more TDs. If the Aggies are going to make a move in the Big 12 this year, the talented Johnson will be the main reason why.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: John Brantley (Florida), Cameron Newton (Auburn), Zach Collaros (Cincinnati), Christian Ponder (Florida State), Andy Dalton (TCU), Matt Barkley (USC), Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech).

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout

An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.

Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off.  Randy was not impressed though.  Paula thought he started off fantastic.  "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either. 

Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed.  Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact.  He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition. 

Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula.  Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.

Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next.  Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential.  Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell.  He sang "Careless Whisper".

22 year old Chris Richardson was up next.  He was listed with +1100 odds coming in.  He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great. 

Nick was boring and pitchy.  Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week.  Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition. 

Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds .  These of course were the early odds.  He was considered original for picking an "odd song".  He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night. 

Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good. 

Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds.  Great voice and a great sense of humor.  He's a real standout.  Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit.  Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig". 

Jared Cotter followed.  He was listed with +2000 odds early on to win the competition.  The judges felt he needs to take more risks but looked good. 

22-year old AJ Talbado, who has tried out for American Idol five times, was up next.  "Kind of a theme park performance" said Simon.  Though the judges felt he performed okay.  Simon did feel AJ might be better than he originally thought.

Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition.  He was the last to perform.  He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start. 

Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys.  Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.